Oberhofer, Harald, Pfaffermayr, Michael. 2021. Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model. Canadian Journal of Economics. 54 (1), 338-375.
BibTeX
Abstract
This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that the UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2% and 45.7% six years after Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in the UK's real income of between 0.3% and 5.7%. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are not different from zero, but some members like Ireland are expected to also experience welfare losses.
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Status of publication | Published |
---|---|
Affiliation | WU |
Type of publication | Journal article |
Journal | Canadian Journal of Economics |
Citation Index | SSCI |
WU Journalrating 2009 | A |
WU-Journal-Rating new | FIN-A, VW-C, WH-B |
Language | English |
Title | Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model |
Volume | 54 |
Number | 1 |
Year | 2021 |
Page from | 338 |
Page to | 375 |
Reviewed? | Y |
URL | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/caje.12494 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12494 |
Open Access | Y |
Open Access Link | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12494 |
Associations
- People
- Oberhofer, Harald (Details)
- External
- Pfaffermayr, Michael (Universität Innsbruck, Austria)
- Organization
- Department of Economics (Badinger) (Details)
- Research areas (ÖSTAT Classification 'Statistik Austria')
- 5323 Econometrics (Details)
- 5325 Political economics (Details)
- 5344 Foreign trade (Details)
- 5370 Industrial economics (Details)