Oberhofer, Harald, Pfaffermayr, Michael. 2021. Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model. Canadian Journal of Economics. 54 (1), 338-375.

RIS

@ARTICLE{Oberhofer2021,
title = {Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model},
author = {Harald Oberhofer and Michael Pfaffermayr},
year = {2021},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12494},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/caje.12494},
volume = {54},
number = {1},
language = {EN},
pages = {338-375},
journal = {Canadian Journal of Economics},
abstract = {This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that the UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2% and 45.7% six years after Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in the UK's real income of between 0.3% and 5.7%. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are not different from zero, but some members like Ireland are expected to also experience welfare losses.},
}