Quotation Oberhofer, Harald, Pfaffermayr, Michael. 2021. Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model. Canadian Journal of Economics. 54 (1), 338-375.




This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that the UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2% and 45.7% six years after Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in the UK's real income of between 0.3% and 5.7%. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are not different from zero, but some members like Ireland are expected to also experience welfare losses.


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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Canadian Journal of Economics
Citation Index SSCI
WU Journalrating 2009 A
WU-Journal-Rating new FIN-A, VW-C, WH-B
Language English
Title Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model
Volume 54
Number 1
Year 2021
Page from 338
Page to 375
Reviewed? Y
URL https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/caje.12494
DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12494
Open Access Y
Open Access Link https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12494


Oberhofer, Harald (Details)
Pfaffermayr, Michael (Universität Innsbruck, Austria)
Department of Economics (Badinger) (Details)
Research areas (ÖSTAT Classification 'Statistik Austria')
5323 Econometrics (Details)
5325 Political economics (Details)
5344 Foreign trade (Details)
5370 Industrial economics (Details)
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