Quotation Belyakov, Anton O., Kurbatskiy, Alexey N., Prettner, Klaus. 2021. The growth effects of anticipated versus unanticipated population aging. Journal of Mathematical Economics. 94 102457




We analyze the effects of anticipated population aging within a general equilibrium R&D-based endogenous growth model with overlapping generations. In doing so we model aging as a rise of longevity and a simultaneous drop in fertility. In contrast to an unanticipated rise of longevity, consumers increase their savings and reduce their consumption long before the rise of longevity actually happens. This implies that individuals save more in anticipation of aging, which puts downward pressure on the interest rate and raises economic growth through an increase in R&D incentives. Irrespective of the anticipation effect, the economic change at impact is not smooth but still features a kink in consumption.


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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Journal of Mathematical Economics
Citation Index SSCI
WU Journalrating 2009 A
WU-Journal-Rating new FIN-A, VW-C, WH-B
Language English
Title The growth effects of anticipated versus unanticipated population aging
Volume 94
Year 2021
Page from 102457
Reviewed? Y
URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304406820301348
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmateco.2020.102457
Open Access N


Prettner, Klaus (Details)
Belyakov, Anton O. (Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russian Federation)
Kurbatskiy, Alexey N. (Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russian Federation)
Department of Economics (Crespo Cuaresma) (Details)
Research areas (Ă–STAT Classification 'Statistik Austria')
5371 Macroeconomics (Details)
5404 Demography (Details)
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