Quotation Naqvi, Syed Ali Asjad, Gaupp, Franziska, Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan. 2020. The risk and consequences of multiple breadbasket failures: an integrated copula and multilayer agent-based modeling approach. OR Spectrum. 42 727-754.




Climate shocks to food systems have been thoroughly researched in terms of food security and supply chain management. However, sparse research exists on the dependent nature of climate shocks on food-producing breadbasket regions and their subsequent cascading impacts. In this paper, we propose that a copula approach, combined with a multilayer network and an agent-based model, can give important insights on how tail-dependent shocks can impact food systems. We show how such shocks can potentially cascade within a region through the behavioral interactions of various layers. Based on our suggested framework, we set up a model for India and show that risks due to drought events multiply if tail dependencies during extremes drought is explicitly taken into account. We further demonstrate that the risk is exacerbated if displacement also takes place. In order to quantify the spatial–temporal evolution of climate risks, we introduce a new measure of multilayer vulnerability that we term Vulnerability Rank or VRank. We find that with higher food production losses, the number of agents that are affected increases nonlinearly due to cascading effects in different network layers. These effects spread to the unaffected regions via large-scale displacement causing sudden changes in production, employment and consumption decisions. Thus, demand shifts also force supply-side adjustments of food networks in the months following the climate shock. We suggest that our framework can provide a more accurate picture of food security-related systemic risks caused by multiple breadbasket failures which, in turn, can better inform risk management and humanitarian aid strategies.


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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal OR Spectrum
Citation Index SCI
WU Journalrating 2009 A
WU-Journal-Rating new FIN-A, INF-A, STRAT-A, VW-C, WH-A
Language English
Title The risk and consequences of multiple breadbasket failures: an integrated copula and multilayer agent-based modeling approach
Volume 42
Year 2020
Page from 727
Page to 754
Reviewed? Y
URL https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00291-020-00574-0
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s00291-020-00574-0
Open Access Y
Open Access Link https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00291-020-00574-0


Naqvi, Syed Ali Asjad (Details)
Gaupp, Franziska (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria)
Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria)
Institute for Ecological Economics IN (Details)
Research areas (ÖSTAT Classification 'Statistik Austria')
1133 Computer-aided simulation (Details)
2928 Environmental economics (Details)
5323 Econometrics (Details)
5353 Environmental economics (Details)
5368 Sustainable development, sustainable economics (Details)
5924 Environmental economics (Details)
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