Quotation Brunk, Jens, Stierle, Matthias, Papke, Leon, Cerqueira Revoredo, Kate, Matzner, Martin, Becker, Jörg. 2021. Cause vs. effect in context-sensitive prediction of business process instances. Information Systems (IS). 95




Predicting undesirable events during the execution of a business process instance provides the process participants with an opportunity to intervene and keep the process aligned with its goals. Few approaches for tackling this challenge consider a multi-perspective view, where the flow perspective of the process is combined with its surrounding context. Given the many sources of data in today’s world, context can vary widely and have various meanings. This paper addresses the issue of context being cause or effect of the next event and its impact on next event prediction. We leverage previous work on probabilistic models to develop a Dynamic Bayesian Network technique. Probabilistic models are considered comprehensible and they allow the end-user and his or her understanding of the domain to be involved in the prediction. Our technique models context attributes that have either a cause or effect relationship towards the event. We evaluate our technique with two real-life data sets and benchmark it with other techniques from the field of predictive process monitoring. The results show that our solution achieves superior prediction results if context information is correctly introduced into the model.


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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Information Systems (IS)
Citation Index SCI
WU Journalrating 2009 A
WU-Journal-Rating new INF-A, STRAT-B, WH-B
Language English
Title Cause vs. effect in context-sensitive prediction of business process instances
Volume 95
Year 2021
Reviewed? Y
URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306437920301046?via%3Dihub
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.is.2020.101635
Open Access N


Cerqueira Revoredo, Kate (Former researcher)
Becker, Jörg (University of Muenster, Germany)
Brunk, Jens (University of Muenster, Germany)
Matzner, Martin (Institute of Information Systems, Germany)
Papke, Leon (University of Muenster, Germany)
Stierle, Matthias (Institute of Information Systems, Germany)
Institute for Data, Process and Knowledge Management (AE Sabou) (Details)
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