Quotation Oberdabernig, Doris Anita, Humer, Stefan, Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus. 2018. Democracy, Geography and Model Uncertainty. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 65 (2), 154-185.




We analyse the nature of robust determinants of differences in democracy levels across countries taking explicitly into account uncertainty in the choice of covariates and spatial spillovers. We make use of recent developments in Bayesian model averaging to assess the effect of a large number of potential factors affecting democratisation processes and account for several specifications of spatial linkages. Our results indicate that spatial spillovers are present in the data even after controlling for a large number of geographical covariates. Addressing the determinants of democracy without modelling such spillovers may lead to flawed inference about the nature of the determinants of democratisation processes. In particular, our results emphasise the role played by Muslim religion, population size, trade volumes, English language, natural resource rents, GDP per capita, being a MENA country and the incidence of armed conflicts as factors affecting democracy robustly.


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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Scottish Journal of Political Economy
Citation Index SSCI
WU Journalrating 2009 A
WU-Journal-Rating new VW-D
Language English
Title Democracy, Geography and Model Uncertainty
Volume 65
Number 2
Year 2018
Page from 154
Page to 185
Reviewed? Y
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12140
Open Access N


Oberdabernig, Doris Anita (Former researcher)
Humer, Stefan (Former researcher)
Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus (Details)
Department of Economics (Crespo Cuaresma) (Details)
Research Institute for Human Capital and Development FI (Former organization)
Competence Center for Sustainability Transformation and Responsibility WE (Details)
Economics of Inequality FI (Details)
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