Koster, Paul, Peer, Stefanie, Dekker, Thijs. 2015. Memory, expectation formation and scheduling choices. Economics of Transportation 4 (4): S. 256-265.

RIS

@ARTICLE{Koster2015,
title = {Memory, expectation formation and scheduling choices},
author = {Paul Koster and Stefanie Peer and Thijs Dekker},
year = {2015},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221201221500043X},
volume = {4},
number = {4},
language = {EN},
pages = {256-265},
journal = {Economics of Transportation},
abstract = {Limited memory capacity, retrieval constraints and anchoring are central to expectation formation processes. We develop a model of adaptive expectations where individuals are able to store only a finite number of past experiences of a stochastic state variable. Retrieval of these experiences is probabilistic and subject to error. We apply the model to scheduling choices of commuters and demonstrate that memory constraints lead to sub-optimal choices. We analytically and numerically show how memory-based adaptive expectations may substantially increase commuters’ willingness-to-pay for reductions in travel time variability, relative to the rational expectations outcome.},
}