Quotation Testa, Maria Rita and Basten, Stuart. 2014. Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the Great Recession. Demographic Research 31 (23): S. 687-734.




OBJECTIVE The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of individuals‟ perception of negative changes in both their own and their country‟s economic performance on reproductive intentions in Europe during the time of the Great Recession (2006-2011). Crucially, we examine both intentions and stated certainty of meeting these intentions. METHODS Using the 2011 Eurobarometer survey for 27 European countries, fertility intentions and reproductive uncertainty are regressed on individuals‟ perceptions of past trends in country‟s economic situation, household‟s financial situation, and personal job situation. Multilevel ordinal regressions models are run separately for people at parities zero and one as well as controlling for a set of socio-demographic variables. RESULTS A worsening in the households‟ financial situation, as perceived in the years of the economic crisis, does not affect people‟s fertility intentions but rather the certainty of meeting these intentions. This relationship holds true at the individual-level for childless people. The more negative the individual‟s assessment of the household‟s financial situation, the higher the reproductive uncertainty. While this works exclusively at the country-level for people at parity one, the higher the share of people‟s pessimism on households‟ financial situation in the country the more insecure individuals of such a country are about having additional children.


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Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Demographic Research
Citation Index SSCI
Language English
Title Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the Great Recession
Volume 31
Number 23
Year 2014
Page from 687
Page to 734
Reviewed? Y
URL http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol31/23/31-23.pdf
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2014.31.23


Testa, Maria Rita (Former researcher)
Basten, Stuart
Demography Group AB (Details)
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