Quotation Striessnig, Erich and Lutz, Wolfgang. 2014. How does education change the relationship between fertility and age-dependency under environmental constraints? A long-term simulation exercise. Demographic Research 30 (16): S. 465-492.


RIS


BibTeX

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: In this paper, we scrutinize this wide-spread view by introducing education in addition to age and sex as a further relevant source of observable population heterogeneity. We consider several criteria for assessing the long-term implications of alternative fertility levels and present numerical simulations with a view on minimizing the education-weighted total dependency ratio and complement this with the goal of reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emission in the context of climate change. METHODS: We perform thousands of alternative simulations for different fertility levels (assumed to be constant over time) starting from empirically given population structures and derive the rate of fertility which yields the lowest level of our education-weighted dependency ratio. We study the sensitivity of our results to different parameter values and choose to focus on the actual populations of Europe and China over the course of the 21st century. RESULTS: The results show that when education is assumed to present a cost at young age and results in higher productivity during adult age, then the fertility rate that on the long run keeps dependency at a minimum turns out to lie well below replacement fertility both in Europe and in China under a set of plausible assumptions. The optimal fertility level falls even lower when climate change is factored in as well. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that there is nothing magical or particularly desirable about replacement level fertility. KEYWORDS: Aging; Dependency; Human capital; Low fertility; Optimal fertility

Tags

Press 'enter' for creating the tag

Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Demographic Research
Citation Index SSCI
Language English
Title How does education change the relationship between fertility and age-dependency under environmental constraints? A long-term simulation exercise
Volume 30
Number 16
Year 2014
Page from 465
Page to 492
Reviewed? Y
URL http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol30/16/
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.16

Associations

People
Striessnig, Erich (Details)
Lutz, Wolfgang (Details)
Organization
Institute for Statistics and Mathematics IN (Details)
Demography Group AB (Details)
Research Institute for Human Capital and Development FI (Former organization)
Google Scholar: Search