Quotation Antonakakis, Nikolaos, Tondl, Gabriele. 2014. Does Integration and Economic Policy Coordination Promote Business Cycle Synchronization in the EU?. Empirica 41 (3): 541-575.




Previous studies have discounted important factors and indirect channels that might contribute to business cycle synchronization (BCS) in the EU. We estimate the effects of market integration and economic policy coordination on bilateral business cycle correlations over the period 1995-2012 using a simultaneous equations model that takes into accounts both the endogenous relationships and unveils direct and indirect effects. The results suggest that (1) trade and FDI have a pronounced positive effect on BCS, particularly between incumbent and new EU members. (2) Rising specialization does not decouple business cycles. (3) The decline of income disparities in EU27 contributes to BCS, as converging countries develop stronger trade and FDI linkages. (4) There is strong evidence that poor fiscal discipline of EU members is a major impediment of business cycle synchronization. (5) The same argument holds true for exchange rate fluctuations that hinder BCS, particularly in EU15. Since BCS is a fundamental prerequisite and objective in an effective monetary union, the EU has to promote market integration and strengthen the common setting of economic policies.


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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Empirica
Citation Index SSCI
Language English
Title Does Integration and Economic Policy Coordination Promote Business Cycle Synchronization in the EU?
Volume 41
Number 3
Year 2014
Page from 541
Page to 575
Reviewed? Y
URL http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10663-014-9254-2


Antonakakis, Nikolaos (Former researcher)
Tondl, Gabriele (Details)
Department of Economics (Badinger) (Details)
Research Institute for European Affairs FI (Details)
Research areas (Ă–STAT Classification 'Statistik Austria')
5300 Economics (Details)
5323 Econometrics (Details)
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