Kastner, Gregor, Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia, Lopes, Hedibert Freitas. 2014. Analysis of Exchange Rates via Multivariate Bayesian Factor Stochastic Volatility Models. In The Contribution of Young Researchers
to Bayesian Statistics, Proceedings of BAYSM2013, Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, Vol. 63, Hrsg. Ettore Lanzarone and Francesca Ieva, 181-185. Switzerland: Springer.
BibTeX
Abstract
Multivariate factor stochastic volatility (SV) models are increasingly used for the analysis of multivariate financial and economic time series because they can capture the volatility dynamics by a small number of latent factors. The main advantage of such a model is its parsimony, as the variances and covariances of a time series vector are governed by a low-dimensional common factor with the components following independent SV models. For high-dimensional problems of this kind, Bayesian MCMC estimation is a very efficient estimation method; however, it is associated with a considerable computational burden when the dimensionality of the data is moderate to large. To overcome this, we avoid the usual forward-filtering backward-sampling (FFBS) algorithm by sampling "all without a loop" (AWOL), consider various reparameterizations such as (partial) noncentering, and apply an ancillarity-sufficiency interweaving strategy (ASIS) for boosting MCMC estimation at a univariate level, which can be applied directly to heteroskedasticity estimation for latent variables such as factors. To show the effectiveness of our approach, we apply the model to a vector of daily exchange rate data.
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Status of publication | Published |
---|---|
Affiliation | WU |
Type of publication | Contribution to conference proceedings |
Language | English |
Title | Analysis of Exchange Rates via Multivariate Bayesian Factor Stochastic Volatility Models |
Title of whole publication | The Contribution of Young Researchers to Bayesian Statistics, Proceedings of BAYSM2013, Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, Vol. 63 |
Editor | Ettore Lanzarone and Francesca Ieva |
Page from | 181 |
Page to | 185 |
Location | Switzerland |
Publisher | Springer |
Year | 2014 |
ISBN | 978-3-319-02083-9 |
URL | http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-319-02084-6 |
Associations
- People
- Kastner, Gregor (Details)
- Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia (Details)
- External
- Lopes, Hedibert Freitas (The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, United States/USA)
- Organization
- Institute for Statistics and Mathematics IN (Details)
- Research areas (ÖSTAT Classification 'Statistik Austria')
- 1105 Computer software (Details)
- 1162 Statistics (Details)
- 5323 Econometrics (Details)
- 5701 Applied statistics (Details)
- 5707 Time series analysis (Details)