Quotation Lutz, Wolfgang, KC, Samir. 2010. Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 365 (1554), 2779-2791.


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Abstract

The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8-10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.

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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B
Citation Index SCI
Language English
Title Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?
Volume 365
Number 1554
Year 2010
Page from 2779
Page to 2791
Reviewed? Y
URL http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/365/1554/2779.full
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0133

Associations

People
Lutz, Wolfgang (Former researcher)
External
KC, Samir (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria)
Organization
Institute for Statistics and Mathematics IN (Details)
Demography Group AB (Details)
Research Institute for Human Capital and Development FI (Former organization)
Research areas (Ă–STAT Classification 'Statistik Austria')
5404 Demography (Details)
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