Quotation De Smedt, Johannes, Yeshchenko, Anton, Polyvyanny, Artem, De Weerdt, Jochen, Mendling, Jan. 2021. Process Model Forecasting Using Time Series Analysis of Event Sequence Data. In Process Model Forecasting Using Time Series Analysis of Event Sequence Data, Hrsg. Aditya Ghose, Jennifer Horkoff, Vítor E. Silva Souza, Jeffrey Parsons, Joerg Evermann, 47-61. International Conference on Conceptual Modeling: Springer.


RIS


BibTeX

Abstract

Process analytics is an umbrella of data-driven techniques which includes making predictions for individual process instances or overall process models. At the instance level, various novel techniques have been recently devised, tackling next activity, remaining time, and outcome prediction. At the model level, there is a notable void. It is the ambition of this paper to fill this gap. To this end, we develop a technique to forecast the entire process model from historical event data. A forecasted model is a will-be process model representing a probable future state of the overall process. Such a forecast helps to investigate the consequences of drift and emerging bottlenecks. Our technique builds on a representation of event data as multiple time series, each capturing the evolution of a behavioural aspect of the process model, such that corresponding forecasting techniques can be applied. Our implementation demonstrates the accuracy of our technique on real-world event log data.

Tags

Press 'enter' for creating the tag

Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Contribution to conference proceedings
Language English
Title Process Model Forecasting Using Time Series Analysis of Event Sequence Data
Title of whole publication Process Model Forecasting Using Time Series Analysis of Event Sequence Data
Editor Aditya Ghose, Jennifer Horkoff, Vítor E. Silva Souza, Jeffrey Parsons, Joerg Evermann
Page from 47
Page to 61
Location International Conference on Conceptual Modeling
Publisher Springer
Year 2021
ISBN 978-3-030-89021-6
URL https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-89022-3_5
Open Access Y
Open Access Link https://arxiv.org/pdf/2105.01092

Associations

People
Yeshchenko, Anton (Details)
Polyvyanny, Artem (Former researcher)
Mendling, Jan (Details)
External
De Smedt, Johannes (KU Leuven, Belgium)
De Weerdt, Jochen (KU Leuven, Belgium)
Organization
Institute for Data, Process and Knowledge Management (AE Sabou) (Details)
Google Scholar: Search