Quotation Plümper, Thomas, Neumayer, Eric. 2021. Fueling the Covid-19 pandemic: summer school holidays and incidence rates in German districts. Journal of Public Health. 1-8.




Background The Robert-Koch-Institute reports that during the summer holiday period a foreign country is stated as the most likely place of infection for an average of 27 and a maximum of 49% of new SARS-CoV-2 infections in Germany. Methods Cross-sectional study on observational data. In Germany, summer school holidays are coordinated between states and spread out over 13 weeks. Employing a dynamic model with district fixed effects, we analyze the association between these holidays and weekly incidence rates across 401 German districts. Results We find effects of the holiday period of around 45% of the average district incidence rates in Germany during their respective final week of holidays and the 2 weeks after holidays end. Western states tend to experience stronger effects than Eastern states. We also find statistically significant interaction effects of school holidays with per capita taxable income and the share of foreign residents in a district’s population. Conclusions Our results suggest that changed behavior during the holiday season accelerated the pandemic and made it considerably more difficult for public health authorities to contain the spread of the virus by means of contact tracing. Germany’s public health authorities did not prepare adequately for this acceleration.


Press 'enter' for creating the tag

Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Journal of Public Health
Citation Index SCI
Language English
Title Fueling the Covid-19 pandemic: summer school holidays and incidence rates in German districts
Year 2021
Page from 1
Page to 8
Reviewed? Y
URL http://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/pubmed/fdab080/36732736/fdab080.pdf
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdab080
Open Access Y
Open Access Link https://watermark.silverchair.com/fdab080.pdf?token=AQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAAtswggLXBgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggLIMIICxAIBADCCAr0GCS


Plümper, Thomas (Details)
Neumayer, Eric (LSE, United Kingdom)
Institute for Sociology and Social Research IN (Details)
Research areas (ÖSTAT Classification 'Statistik Austria')
5118 Political science (Details)
5325 Political economics (Details)
5912 Social sciences (interdisciplinary) (Details)
Google Scholar: Search